And then there were four. A bit distracted from politics lately, what with the hospital thing and the effort involved in keeping Moira locked in the closet, but it looks like a classic good-news bad-news situation developed – the good: Edwards is out! the bad: Giuliani is out! My most-disliked and my least-disliked candidates both out of the running. (Among those individuals I considered as viable candidates at all, that is; Dodd, Kucinich, Paul, and Thompson never blipped my radar.) We're now down to four potential candidates – Huckabee will flame out soon, and Paul still doesn't count.

Let me take a brief moment to look back at the results of that little presidential quiz I took a few weeks ago:

• Giuliani 9
• Edwards, Kucinich 7
• Huckabee, Richardson 5
• Clinton, Dodd, Hunter, McCain, Romney, Thompson 4
• Biden, Gravel, Obama, Paul 3

This was out of a possible agrees-with-me score of 45. There appears to be one overriding message for me here: None of the remaining candidates reflects anything at all like my own views. Seeing as how I disagree with all of them, how do I pick one? Hmmm, what will it be...a blow on the head, a poke in the eye, a punch in the throat, a kick in the kneecap?

Of course, as the travelling circus has moved on from Iowa, I don't really get to pick one of the four anyway; the next time the circus comes to town, there will be only two to choose from. But which two?

My guess, for what very little it is worth, is that on the D side of the scale Clinton will eventually wrestle down the nomination, though it will turn plenty nasty and ugly before she beats Obama into submission. Yes, Obama has Youth and Hope and Beautiful People swooning at his every mellifluous word, but my 4.5 decades of exposure to life and politics don't see good wishes and happy thoughts triumphing over the naked will to power. I suspect a lot of bright-eyed Obama supporters are going to come out of this election cycle very disillusioned and cynical, as Politics As Usual steamrolls "Yes We Can."

Over on the R side, I have a hard time believing that McCain can actually get the nomination, regardless of how well he's doing right now. At least, if what I'm being told about McCain is true – that he's basically a rogue RINO with zero party loyalty, a Republican Joe Lieberman with anger management issues – well, if the Republicans allow someone who Isn't Really A Republican to get the nomination, that doesn't say a whole lot for their nominating process, does it?^[1][2]

An interesting commonality between Obama and McCain^[3] is that they seem to represent a desire on the part of a big chunk of the electorate to go beyond "the establishment", beyond "politics as usual". They are both firmly bound within the establishment, of course; but the desire is notable. It seems as though more people than usual across the political spectrum are feeling that life in the US is somehow out of joint, and in response they are attempting to cut the Gordian knot of business-as-usual with someone they think will be different. The American electorate is like a wounded beast; it lashes out. Not in any coherent manner, mind you, but it lashes out just the same.

So that means I predict my choice, ultimately, will boil down to Clinton vs. Romney.

Host: do you still want the blow on the head?

Woman: Yes, yes.

Host: I'll offer you a poke in the eye.

Woman: No! I want a blow on the head.

I don't know what I'll do when that comes to pass; not yet. My prediction, at this point, based on nothing but a sinking feeling in the gut, is that Romney wins. That's not a prediction made with any enthusiasm; it's just what I feel is going to happen.

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^[1] Or maybe it just means that the core party faithful are losing their hold, as less-partisan Rs are getting fed up. Maybe McCain really is the face of the Republican Party, circa 2008.

^[2] McCain is not a household favorite at the Casa Fleck y Breen. Type "McCain" in the search box at the upper right to get some idea of why.

^[3] Oh, yeah, and that Paul guy, too.

Posted by David Fleck at 03 February 2008 04:55 PM